Primary Presidential Polling in MI

Watch Giuliani melt down (0.00 / 0)

The people who actually vote in Republican primaries are far to the right (ask Joe Schwarz about them), and won't be inclined to vote for a twice-divorced, Italian American from Noo Yawk City who favors reproductive choice and gay rights.

As for McCain, he's in bad odor with the Club for Growth, which sank Schwarz in the primary, and despite his pander-fest with the likes of Jerry Falwell, still isn't trusted by the Religious Right.

Please read "Out of Iraq: A Practical Plan for Withdrawal Now" by George McGovern and William R. Polk.

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by: Hy Dudgeon @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 15:24:26 PM CST

Republican nominee (0.00 / 0)

Does that leave Mitt "changed my mind again" Romney as the favorite? It looks like a conservative candidate could take the nomination if the above three candidates split the moderate Republican vote.

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

 - Ralph Waldo Emerson

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by: michmark @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 15:44:32 PM CST

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Schwarz' problem was his mouth (0.00 / 0)

While the gay issue was hyped the most, the life issue, the gun issue (despite the NRA's baffling endorsement), and taxes all played a part in Schwarz downfall. His comments about pro-lifers (Zealots), taxes (I was at the 02 debate between him and Posthumus where Schwarz supported an increase), and gun owners (bubba who straps on a 9mm) all came back to bite him.

Contrast him with Fred Upton. Upton doesn't always vote conservative, but always wins big in both primaries and the general election. He has a nice guy reputation, and that goes a long way, especially in West Michigan and in the rural areas.

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 21:59:11 PM CST

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Upton is a long-time big-name incumbent who can raise cash (0.00 / 0)

Upton faced no primary opponent this year and generated a million dollars the last time his Republican primary was even close to contested, IIRC.  Incumbency, including a prominent name within the community, and ability to generate $ as a consequence have been a powerful force keeping Upton around.  I doubt Upton would've survived if someone plopped him into the 8th district away from Whirlpool, running for his first re-election against a Club For Growth Republican.  CFG would have hammered Upton on voting against tax cuts instead of the gay issue.  (Though, come to think of it, Upton has also said in the past that a constitutional amendment against gay marriage isn't necessary but has since backpedalled into the Republican mainstream.)

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by: China Mig @ Mon Jan 22, 2007 at 04:36:54 AM CST

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Giuliani would get killed in the general election.... (0.00 / 0)

The volunteer base of the GOP is religious conservatives.  While in an open primary he might have a shot, he'd die a horrible death because there wouldn't be anyone for GOTV.  He wasn't popular as a Mayor pre-9/11, and now that the 9/11 shock has worn off he won't have much to go on.

I think religious conservatives might grudingly go for McCain, even though they don't like him much.  As for Romney, he's a Mormon.  That's already hurting his chances, and the recent YouTube video of him has all but killed him.

I'm still thinking Brownback will be the dark horse-kind of a Republican Kerry.

I'm a little curious as to who Republican Michigander is backing, though.

Putting conservatives in charge of our government makes about as much sense as GM hiring a CEO who hates cars.

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by: djtyg @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 16:37:37 PM CST

Republican Michigander has spoken highly of Mike Pence (0.00 / 0)

Pence is a congressman from Indiana, and some Republicans have mentioned him as presidential material, if not in 2008 then later on.

Please read "Out of Iraq: A Practical Plan for Withdrawal Now" by George McGovern and William R. Polk.

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by: Hy Dudgeon @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 17:14:33 PM CST

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If the election were held today (0.00 / 0)

I'd vote for Jim Gilmore, former Virginia governor. That's subject to change, but that's where I stand currently. If Mike Pence or Mark Sanford runs, I'll back them in a minute. All three of them are very strong fiscal conservatives. I probably agree with Sanford the most out of the three issueswise across the board, but Sanford said awhile back he wasn't running. Pence I like for his fiscal leadership and push for a balanced budget and his willingness to stand up to the big spenders in both parties.

I don't think McCain will win the primary. The grass roots activists I know can not stand him and do not trust him for various different reasons. Most of his support is topheavy. Rudy is more well liked. A lot of conservatives I know like him because of 9/11 and his tough-guy persona. I like the guy personally, but his 2nd amendment and sometime too pro law and order stances concern me. Romney I'm just not sure about yet. I don't care one way or the other about his Mormonism. I do care about chances in his stances over the last 10 years.

On the democrat side, I think Bill Richardson would be our toughest matchup. Western state. Governor, negates the gun issue (unless he changes his stance), foreign policy experience, and comes across as a regular guy. 

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 22:18:27 PM CST

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I like him too... (0.00 / 0)

Bill Richardson also has a good record of supporting veterans (he made all the reservists in his state eligible for SGLI) and he has a good resume being that he worked for the UN and just negotiated a cease fire in Darfur.  Aside from Gore he'd be my favorite.

Unfortunately the current game is rigged against Governors due to McCain-Feingold, which makes it harder for Governors to raise funds for Presidential campaigns.

Putting conservatives in charge of our government makes about as much sense as GM hiring a CEO who hates cars.

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by: djtyg @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 19:07:18 PM CST

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Richardson! Richardson! Richardson! (0.00 / 0)

I agree.  Unless Gore throws in his hat, Richardson is my guy, too.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Sun Feb 04, 2007 at 09:53:17 AM CST

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2008 Candidates (0.00 / 0)

I wish the general public would take the time to educate themselves on the candidates and issues instead of going on a name they know. Some of us support Clinton or Obama because we truly feel they best represent our own views. At the same timeI know a lot of people support Obama because he is a good writer and speaker and Clinton because she is a Clinton. The same goes with Edwards, who is very charismatic and is known from '04. Does the media control us by only mentioning these candidates in their reports? What about Vilsack, Dodd, Kucinich, etc.?

I just finished reading Wesley K. Clark: A Biography by Antonia Felix, and wish a person such as Clark who has as so much experience, intelligence, and love for our country would get some respect and a little coverage from the media.

Success is not final, failure is not fatal. - Winston Churchill  

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by: TJarrell @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 17:21:06 PM CST

"Supporting Clinton because she's a Clinton" (0.00 / 0)

That might explain why a DLC hawk who's terribly out of step with the country--not to mention her party--on Iraq is still considered the front-runner.

In fact, she's so out of step that yesterday's lead editorial in the Wall Street Journal had kind words for her views on national security. Translation: if elected, she's likely to maintain a substantial U.S. troop presence in Iraq and pursue many of the same foreign-policy initiatives as the Bush neoconservatives.

Please read "Out of Iraq: A Practical Plan for Withdrawal Now" by George McGovern and William R. Polk.

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by: Hy Dudgeon @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 17:41:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The War Yes (4.00 / 1)

While Senator Clinton is out of step with regards to the war and national security issues she really is a great leader on social issues. Her work on the Plan B pill was fantastic and as a former resident of New York State she is a fine Senator who works tirelessly for ALL of her constituents regardless of what part of the state they are from (not common in NY's NYC oriented politics). I hope she doesn't run because I think she is too valuable to the people of Upstate New York.

check out my blog!

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by: dwishinsky @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 18:58:57 PM CST

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If the election were held today (0.00 / 0)

I think Clinton would win the Dem's nomination and pick your boy from Indiana as her runningmate. He raised over $10 million for his PAC, entered the race and left in a matter of seconds, and now is in every photo will Clinton. He is going to be out there on the campaign trail for her soon, and that will probably be our ticket...as of now.

Stil, check out Wes at www.SecuringAmerica.com =)

Success is not final, failure is not fatal. - Winston Churchill  

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by: TJarrell @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 21:52:45 PM CST

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Bayh (0.00 / 0)

Bayh may be running for Governor of Indiana in 2008 (see my blog) and contemplating a run in 2012 (which would also follow my thinking that the Dems unfortunately wont win the presidency)

check out my blog!

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by: dwishinsky @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 09:39:19 AM CST

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She panders too much.... (4.00 / 1)

Hillary spends too much time triangulating and trying to be all things to all people.  Because of this nobody knows where she stands on any issue except Iraq-and she's definetely wrong on that.

Putting conservatives in charge of our government makes about as much sense as GM hiring a CEO who hates cars.

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by: djtyg @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 19:03:29 PM CST

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I agree (0.00 / 0)

I agree. I am currently undecided given that Evan Bayh has left the race, though I know Tim you were lulled to sleep I think it was by my admiration of the junior Senator of Indiana. Clark is intriguing to me. But currently the only ones who hold any degree of appeal for me are: Clinton, Vilsack and especially Bill Richardson. With that said, the only candidate I would "jump into bed with" for 2008 would be Al Gore if he ran. He is the only one I can say surely will win. Right now I think we are on course for President Romney... :(

check out my blog!

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by: dwishinsky @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 18:57:00 PM CST

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President Romney? I don't think so. (0.00 / 0)

Religious conservatives will not vote for a mormon. Romney can try to pander to the religous base of the GOP all he wants, but I just don't see them turning out for him on election day.

The dynamics of the presidential race will continue to hinge on Iraq. This is Bush's war, and while a fair number of dems enabled it (Edwards, Clinton, Kerry, etc.), Iraq will be a lead weight around the neck of every republican candidate for president (except Hagel, who wouldn't win the nomination anyway).

I don't want to sound too overconfident, but with the republicans' overeliance on religous voters (and only one or two long-shot candidates who can really win them over), and something like 70% of the public disapproving of the escalation, I think democrats have a pretty good shot in 2008, regardless of who our nominee is.

Of course, a lot can happen in two years.

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few

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by: BZP @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 22:16:20 PM CST

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McCain Could Self-Destruct (0.00 / 0)

Romney though has several things going for him. While the Mormon thing could be a formidable obstacle, I think McCain's Senate record could down him faster. Romney will do well in northern states and large states where the conservatives don't control the votes as much.

I see the race totally opposite. I think the Democrats have three major candidates with MAJOR MAJOR MAJOR flaws. America has no hesitance with a Congress that is of a different party than their President. I don't see a way Democrats win with their current Big 3 candidates.\

check out my blog!

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by: dwishinsky @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 17:43:51 PM CST

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Not so sure on Romney... (4.00 / 1)

I think a lot of Americans are sick and tired of political candidates who hang, bash, and berate gays and lesbians for their own political gains.  I don't expect Democrats like Obama or Clinton to talk much about gay rights, but at least I know they won't try to get votes by threatening the rights of a small group of Americans who pay just as much in taxes as the next person.

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by: jimwhitaker @ Sun Jan 21, 2007 at 00:53:24 AM CST

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Obama excites people (0.00 / 0)

Life isn't fair and people are not reasonable .... otherwise, who can explain Britney Spears and Jessica Simpson and Paris Hilton and .......

I gotta say it again though - when I went to the Camp Wellstone in Chicago in the early spring of 2004, the 50 or so Obama for Senate supporters there were down right batty crazy for the guy.... he has a very charismatic effect on folks, and I think he has the mind and beliefs that many of us share, in general.  I'm already signed up on his mailing list at http://www.barackoba... because he stands out to me as someone who is smart, who listens, and will pick a good team because God knows no single person can do it all well.

I agree though - I do wish the general public would take the time to educate themselves.  Oh well.... people don't care about the condition of their home's roof until water starts pouring through it either.

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by: jimwhitaker @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 21:00:10 PM CST

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And Oprah likes him... (0.00 / 0)

... between Oprah liking him and his ability to interest folks, I think it could turn into a lot of folks showing up at these strange-fangled Democratic party caucus things to vote for him.  The Caucus system seems so boys club-ish, but anyway ...

Arnold (the Governator) is pushing to have California's primary moved up to February - good for him!  I hope that happens - it is b.s. that Californians (not me) area soaked for campaign money, but don't vote til June or whatever.

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by: jimwhitaker @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 15:09:12 PM CST

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Well if Oprah likes him ... (0.00 / 0)

... his face will be all over Meijer and Special K and Ritz Crackers in no time!

(think Rachel Ray)

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by: Christine @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 18:50:20 PM CST

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I hate Rachel Ray!!! (0.00 / 0)

Yum NO!

Success is not final, failure is not fatal. - Winston Churchill  

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by: TJarrell @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 22:09:30 PM CST

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What will Obama's talk show be called? (0.00 / 0)

You're right ... and he's just a few guest appearances and phone calls by Oprah away from getting his own talk show!

Now if he can bag Ellen's support before Hillary, he's all set.

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by: jimwhitaker @ Sun Jan 21, 2007 at 00:55:02 AM CST

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Richardson! Richardson! Richardson! (0.00 / 0)

If a story linked by The Huffington Post is accurate ... he files tomorrow.

w00t!

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 07:45:12 AM CST

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Mixed views (0.00 / 0)

As a gun owner, I'm glad he's in. As a Republican, I think he's the toughest to beat.

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 15:42:26 PM CST

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Well, climb aboard the band wagon... (0.00 / 0)

Alas, he can't raise the money, so Hillary might just buy herself the White House in '08.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Sun Feb 04, 2007 at 10:04:37 AM CST

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If anybody figures out how people in Michigan will get to vote. . . (4.00 / 1)

. . . I'd love to hear about it.  I'd give good odds we won't use the same setup as in 2000, with the Dems holding a private caucus, and the Republicans getting a pie in the face.

There's intense pressure to work out a statutory deal, but I can't figure out what shape it will take - the reaction from the voters will be utterly toxic.

If anybody has an educated guess what will happen, please enlighten us.  Or even an uneducated guess.

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by: Grebner @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 22:25:48 PM CST

my guess (0.00 / 0)

Semi-open primary. One of the big reasons for McCain's people trying to oust Saul was due to his support of closing the primary. I don't expect a caucus system here, although I would support it.

The latest I heard (If negotiations go through) is that both primaries would be on the same day. Anyone can vote in any primary, and voters must declare a ballot, which would be recorded by the party.

There does need to be changes. I don't need Carl Levin cancelling out my vote in a GOP presidential primary. I also doubt he wants me voting in his caucus.


"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Sun Jan 21, 2007 at 10:31:36 AM CST

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Not Bad for Edwards (0.00 / 0)

given the MSM meme of Hillary-and-Obama-all-the-time.

It's pretty clear that at this point, it's a three-person race (no one else was above 2%).

In time, his far more agressive fair-trade stance will make him a favorite here in Michigan.

Plus, with Bonior, there is a good chance that the UAW will come out and endorse Edwards as long as he remains where he is at or better in the polls.

West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

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by: philgoblue @ Mon Jan 22, 2007 at 10:13:05 AM CST

The union's love Edwards (0.00 / 0)

should be interesting to see how that shakes out here in Michigan...

If the race isn't over by then...

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by: Nazgul35 @ Mon Jan 22, 2007 at 11:29:49 AM CST

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