(Choosing which great Democratic candidate to support will be a good 'problem' to have! - promoted by ScottyUrb)
Despite losing a great contender for the Democratic nod to become the next Governor of the State of Michigan, we've gained another.
State Senator Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit) has just filed papers to run for Governor. From his personal Facebook status:
Hansen Clarke filed papers at 2:31pm today in Lansing to run for the Office of Governor in the great State of Michigan.
As well, MIRS picked up on the story as well. Expect other media outlets to follow. The final confirmation came from Hansen's wife, Choi, who wrote:
Choi Palms-Cohen is extremely proud to announce that her husband, Sen. Hansen Clarke, has filed papers today to run for the Office of Governor of the great State of Michigan!
I think this is not just great for Senator Clarke, but also for Michigan. Hansen has been a long-time advocate of the little guy in Lansing, and, while others 'play the game' to get bills passed, he's stuck to his guns and refuses to do anything that violates his moral or ethical principles. Furthermore, I've never seen him turn away an idea without giving it proper consideration- given the status of our state's economy, a leader who is willing to listen and consider all options before making a decision is exactly what we need.
I personally worked with the Senator for two years in his office. Beforehand, I had worked in other government offices and for other candidates, and since have left to join the private sector. While some may think this makes me biased, I believe it gives me a lot of credibility in assessing his merits to attain to the highest office in the state. My assessment is that he is one of the most decent and honorable people I've met in my life, and a true example of a concerned citizen who broke into politics with a message that hasn't let that message be muddled by special interests or insider politics. I believe he will make a great Democratic candidate and a strong leader to take Michigan out of its Lost Decade and into a prosperous future.
UPDATE by ScottyUrb (3:52 PM): The one and only Todd Heywood at Michigan Messenger had a chance to meet with Clarke. That has more on Clarke as well as his thoughts as he begins his campaign.
On the heels of my last Michigan related diary, which received some pretty suprising attention from the DLCC, I've decided to overview the potentially competitive State House Races going forward into 2010. By my count, about a third (34 out of 110) of the State House seats will be open in 2010, a far smaller percentage than in the State Senate, where at least 30 of 38 seats will be open. Although Democrats stand to gain several seats in the Senate, the House is not such a rosy picture. The competitive nature of the open seats means that there will be a lot of turnovers in the next election, but Democrats will at best only achieve a net gain of 1-2 seats, While the most likely scenario is a no net change to Republicans gaining 1-2. In a bad year Democrats could lose 5-6 seats, but I don't envision the Republicans gaining the 13 seats needed to take back control of the body. Democrats control the House by a 67-43 margin, after two successive cycles of huge gains (+6 in 2006 and +9 in 2008). You can view my Senate overview here http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5225/early-look-at-competitive-2010-michigan-state-senate-races
Because most of the districts will be uncompetitive, I'm only listing ones that I consider to be "Lean" or "Tossup" districts. I will include, as in my Senate Diary, a list of announced and potential candidates and 2008 Presidential results.
As with last time, I'd appreciate any comments, criticisms, and corrections that the folks at Michigan Liberal have to offer.
MichLib's Eric B. is point-on when he says this plan is “building a future based on making things worse for people.” A future constructed by winning a race to the bottom is no future at all. This is true not only of benefits for teachers, but for the economy in general. There are some who say that in order to compete for business, we’ve got to slash benefits, cut back on environmental protections, reduce wages, and scale back regulations. That’s an outdated way of thinking.
The number one thing businesses look for is a high quality-of-life -- that means world-class schools with great teachers, a 21st century infrastructure, pristine natural resources, and affordable high-quality healthcare. If we really want to transform Michigan, making sure we have a high quality of life is the way to do it. The Dillon plan will do nothing to make it happen.
We all know how important it is that Democrats re-capture the Michigan State Senate next year. If they take the Senate and hold the Governorship, they will have complete control over the redistricting process. Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, says "Democrats look poised to pick up at least 3 seats" next year. To take control, we only need to win 4 Republican seats. Democrats have not controlled the State Senate since 1982. Below I have all 38 Senate seats listed, with the name of its Senator, the party, whether or not it will be OPEN next year, and a brief description of the district. I also give a brief preliminary paragraph handicapping the race.
Then I give the 2008 Presidential Result in that District. Remember that the 2008 resutl is sort of a "High Water Mark" here. Note that I didn't calculate the Presidential Vote for the 5 Detroit districts because this would require going precinct by precinct which would have taken days. They are all at least 80% Obama, many are more than 90% Obama.
I then included all of the announced candidates for the races, with links to their websites or sources. I then list potential candidates for each race, usually State Representatives or other local officeholders. Finally, I offer a Charlie Cook style rating: Safe, Likely, Leans or Tossup. The Senator's name links to their website, where you can find a map of his or her district.
I'd appreciate any input that anyone here at Michigan Liberal has, whether I missed an announced candidate, or a potential candidate, or you disagree with my analysis, post it in the comments and I'll update my diary to reflect that.
I realize that this is a lot of text, so for those who don't want to read the entire thing, I added all my ratings seperately at the bottom of the diary.
In the small chance you've been off the Tubes of the Internets for the last 48 hours, chances are you've heard a whole lot of noise about how the Senate Republicans slashed the state's Higher Education budget yesterday, which included the Michigan's Promise, the $4000 scholarship for Michigan students, which 96,000 students in our state receive and depend on.
As a geek, I love the online organizing tools -- but as a citizen, this is a great way to send a message that we won't stand for breaking Michigan's promise.
Minutes before the vote on many of amendments that attempted to restore the Michigan Promise Scholarship, Lt. Gov. John CHERRY, who was presiding over the Senate was sending out messages on Twitter telling his followers to use an online tool to write local newspapers to stress why cutting the scholarship was wrong.
Not too long after I saw the tweets from the Lt. Governor, I clicked on one and was taken to the website from A Whole Lot of People Supporting Cherry, his exploration committee, asking me to make sure our state is 'Keeping Our Promises' by visiting an entire section of his website to take action on this one singular issue.
Now that might not seem to extraordinary, but if you visit the page, you're apt to be a little more impressed. The page includes a You-Tube video, a petition to sign directed at the Senate Republicans, a link to the Facebook group for the issue, a link to a tool that allows you to automatically send a letter-to-the-editor about this particular issue (with suggested text), a "tell-a-friend" tool, and lastly a link to the news page with all of Cherry's press releases. From an online organizing/get-out-the-vote (GOTV) perspective, that's pretty sweet.
To be fair, the Senate Democrats have done an impressive job of also using some of these very same online tools to keep folks informed and engaged through their website, blog and Twitter, and Facebook accounts, and have one of the most active and updated YouTube channels, with over 75 videos to date.
On top of all of that, Cherry started using a new online petition tool, http://act.ly, the Twitter Petition, that just launched within the last 72 hours, to also drive the subject.
Obviously the Obama campaign set the bar pretty high last year for similar online action, but this early in the 2010 game it's pretty impressive.
As someone who makes monthly student loan payments equivalent to what some pay for a mortgage, I appreciate the fight that the leadership of Cherry and the Senate Democrats are taking on with this issue. As a giant geek, I think it's great to see public officials really grabbing this online technology by the horns and using it for a very worthy cause.
Apparently a Republican-written white paper spelling out their demise over the next couple years wasn't bad enough, but the snowball just keeps rolling down the hill, and growing in size.
WXYZ TV (Channel 7 out of Detroit) just released the results of a poll about potential gubernatorial candidates, and continues to reinforce what Democrats, Republicans, and the public all know - Republicans are weak, really weak.
Among Democrats, in an open-ended question without hearing the list of Democratic candidates, if the primary election were held today, the leading candidate would be Lieutenant Governor John Cherry, who is polling at 9%. The second most popular candidate is US Senator Debbie Stabenow, who polls at 5%, followed by Governor Jennifer Granholm at 3%. However, Governor Granholm is term-limited, and cannot run again.
This is great news for Cherry, as Stabenow has already announced that she is not running in the 2010 gubernatorial race, giving Cherry the definitive lead. He also does better than anyone of any of the announced or even remotely likely Democratic candidates for Governor, and is either winning or within the margin of error with all the Republicans he's matched up with.
And what about those Republicans, you ask? Well, besides duking it out amongst themselves with very little flair or notability, there's also some telling items, namely that Rick Snyder, who may be seen as some as the dark horse in the race, didn't even garner enough points to pull a single percentage point.
Again with the usual caveat - it's only May of 2009. There's a lot of time between now and November of 2010, but it's doubtful that the Republicans can make up that much ground with their entire field between now and then.
That being said, none of the Democratic candidates should be resting on their laurels, nor should their supporters, but the poll certainly is encouraging.
It may only be May of 2009, but in the wonderful world of politics, it's never too early to talk election scuttlebutt!
On the Dem side, Lt. Gov. John Cherry continues to pick up steam. He's just announced that 17 Democratic County and District Chairs have endorsed him. If that sounds impressive, add that to the 14 others that previously endorsed, bring it to a whopping 31. Our great state only has 83 counties and 15 congressional districts, so one can only guess where he'll be by July or August!
The rumored possible/maybe (can we get any more vague?) run of Macomb County Sherrif Mark Hackel appears to be over, quite possibly even before it got started. For this, we go to our trusty Senior Capitol Correspondent and Off the Record host, Tim Skubick -
Macomb County Sheriff Mark Hackel is making noises that running for governor maybe ain't such a hot idea after all. Apparently in addition to his law enforcement chores, he is also a math major and the numbers don't add up on the democratic ledger.
Sure he is from vote rich Macomb County and anybody running for governor would love to have that as a base, and sure he has great name ID and voters like him, but his chances of wrestling the nomination from Lt. Gov. John Cherry are slim and none.
While Hackel has spent the last six months thinking about running, the aforementioned Mr. Cherry has actually been running and rather successfully as he methodically puts his machine together.And then, my personal favorite continual comedic fodder, the ever bumbling and grandiose Republicans...
And then there's my favorite source of continual comedic fodder, the bumbling and arrogant Republican field. Remember, the very same party whose own people published a white paper saying they didn't even have a bat's chance in hell of winning...
Encouraging and interesting news comes to the state courtesy of a new white-paper from an interesting group of Republican strategists - the GOP just can't win in 2010. The article from MIRS (subscription only) is quite revealing. For instance -
A new white paper by MDJ&R Strategy Consultants takes a look at why the GOP went from controlling the governor's mansion and both houses of the Legislature before the last redistricting in 2000 to having a Democratic governor and House today. Their study of election data trends predicts neither will change hands in the 2010 election and Republicans will drop to a 20-18 majority in the Senate.
"The numbers aren't there to be successful in 2010," said Dennis DARNOI, former chief of staff for Senate Majority Leader Mike BISHOP(R-Rochester). "It's clear that the message the top-of-the-ticket candidates have been using isn't resonating. It hasn't been successful for six years."
Darnoi said the GOP has lost suburban and independent voters, particularly from the five biggest counties -- Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Kent and Grand Traverse. Only 32 percent of Michigan voters identify as Republicans, even though 40 percent say they're conservative. Republicans need an 83-county strategy, he said.
Hmm, an 83-county strategy, eh? Sounds a little familiar, kind of like a 50-state strategy implemented by the Democratic National Party in 2008? You betcha! (wink)
This morning Lt. Governor John Cherry launched his campaign website in his bid for the 2010 gubernatorial election. It's a gorgeous website, and has all the bells and whistles that have become the hallmark of a solid Democratic online presence. that started with Gov. Howard Dean in 2006.
Here's a bit from the site's inaugural post -
Our goal is to create a space online to not only learn about Lt. Governor Cherry, but also to hear your thoughts, ideas, and concerns. Let me know if you have any ideas or suggestions for how we could improve the site, or what you'd like to see on it. Right now, check out:
Multimedia: We have all kinds of cool multimedia (duh!) content here, from posters and stickers you can print to online widgets for your iGoogle page, Facebook, or MySpace profile (among other things!) We'll be updating this section all the time - and will even be featuring your content! We also have videos here, from testimonials about why people support John from all across Michigan to video of the Lt. Governor in action. You can even submit your own video here, and we'll feature it on the site!
Blog: We want to know what you think! I'll be posting here regularly, and you can expect to hear from a Whole Lot of Other bloggers too (interested? e-mail me). I want to read your comments; they're important to us! This campaign is about you, so comment any time!
Ways to stay in touch: I know, I know. You're never on Facebook. Right. Lt. Governor Cherry is all over the Internet, from Twitter (he was the first Lt. Governor in the country to join the service last June), to Facebook, to YouTube – even Flickr for photos!
About John: Did you know the Lt. Governor used to breed springer spaniels? Now you do! Learn more about our Lt. Governor here.
Get Involved: Learn how you can become one of A Whole Lot of People Supporting John Cherry!
Write a letter to the editor: Use our speakout tool to easily write your local newspaper – without even leaving our site!
I'm really excited to be moving forward, and look forward to your comments. What do YOU want to see here?
A Whole Lot of People Supporting John Cherry really does mean a a whole bunch of people, as seen here -
Congrats to the Cherry team for such a beautiful website, and we here at MichLib look forward to any other candidate websites, should they come forward!
The Republicans have their statewide convention this weekend in Lansing, where they will kickoff their attempt at reviving their party in the 2010 election cycle. Their main targets will be at taking back the Governorship on a platform that they know how to revive the state's economy.
How is anyone supposed to believe that from looking at the candidates? Rep. Pete Hoekstra was vocal in his opposition to the federal stimulus package to save and create thousands of jobs in Michigan, especially in his district. The other GOP candidates have followed suit in their opposition to saving our state.
They have even gone to the extreme of having former GOP chair and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour be the keynote speaker. He is so opposed to the stimulus that he will fight to keep the money from the people who need it the most. Quoth the DetNews:
"Barbour spokesman Dan Turner, for example, cited concerns that accepting unemployment
money from the stimulus package would force states to pay benefits to people who wouldn't
meet state requirements to receive them"
That's right. The governor of one of the poorest states in the country is expected to fight against giving assistance to the poor. What's worse is the Michigan Republicans are endorsing these policies by giving Barbour the honor to address the leaders of their party.
Is this what Michigan Republicans believe is the way to save our failing economy, by imitating the policies of Mississippi? I sincerely hope so- that will make the 2010 cycle even more of an epic fail for Anuzis/Weiser and Co. than 2008 was.
Despite us being mere weeks out of one of the biggest elections in American history, there is always the desire to look to the future. Issues such as economic recovery in this state are much more far-reaching than just this year or next, and require long-term commitment.
When looking at the field of contenders who have emerged to offer their commitments to serve as the next governor of our state, I couldn't be more pleased. The Republican ticket is crowded with competitive politicians who are assured to have the most vitriolic primary in recent memory, while the Democrats are coming to bat with one of the best-stocked bullpens around.
Focusing only on the serious contenders (apologies to Don Williamson, George Perles, and Mark Hackel), and excluding those who have not filed but are expected to (including Robert Ficano) the Democrats seem to have two outstanding choices, Lt. Gov. John Cherry, and a candidate who just recently declared, State. Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith.
I was personally very heartened to hear that Rep. Alma Smith was going to run for governor again. Having worked with and met her several times in Lansing, I know that she has all the characteristics that our state needs in a leader going into the coming decade. Her experience, political acumen, and fortitude make her a great candidate and would also make her a fine governor.
To look at Alma Smith's resume is to see a life dedicated to public service. From the city, county, and state level, she has served the people of our state with distinction. In Lansing, she has spent time in both the state House and Senate, giving her the inside track on how politics work at the end of Michigan Avenue. Her experience on the Washtenaw County Commission and the School Board have also prevented her from becoming 'detached' from her constituents, as many in Lansing are known to do.
This wealth of experience has allowed Alma to become one of the most adept politicians that I have seen. After sitting in a meeting with her and several members of the Michigan Department of the Treasury, I witnessed first hand how she is able to fight fire with fire in a political debate and push through agendas that, at the outset, others may not be willing to do. In a mere thirty minutes, Alma managed to get the representatives from Treasury to go from being opposed to divesting money from the genocide in Sudan to becoming supporters of the bill, willing to testify in committee. This level of political skill is a key requirement for a governor who is going to have to fight lobbyists and entrenched special interests to enact the change our state so desperately needs.
All this experience and acumen would be for naught if it wasn't backed up with the most necessary requirement for any elected office: fortitude. The personal fortitude to stand up for what is right despite the costs is one of the defining characteristics she has. I think the most pertinent example is her decision to be the lone dissenting vote in the passage of the ineffectual resolution in the State House to 'reduce' legislative pay. This resolution was a superfluous document that could not reduce the pay, and did not further the real solution she advocates- putting a constitutional amendment in place voted on by the public. She stated that this resolution was only a political way to 'pull the wool over the public's eyes' instead of solving the real issue. Established and experienced lawyers agree with her assessment, and she was willing to stand up for it despite the politics associated with the issue.
I fully support both State Representative Alma Wheeler Smith and Lt. Gov. John Cherry in their bids for the Democratic nomination for Governor of the State of Michigan. However, I feel that it is important to bring to light these specific qualities of Rep. Smith that would make her a very effective candidate and governor. I wish all of the candidates the best of luck in the future
Politico has a feature on Thaddeus McCotter's prospects for 2010.
Back home in his increasingly Democratic suburban Detroit district, there's growing evidence that his rhetoric is landing him in hot water. His reelection percentages have steadily declined from 57 percent in 2004 to 51 percent in 2008 - and he has yet to face a well-funded, top-tier Democratic challenger.
Just for fun, though, the author quotes Saul Anuzis
If anything, Anuzis argues, voters admire McCotter for his propensity for outspokenness.
and Mike Rogers, who -- in addition to ignoring his district (CD-08) and mulling over a run for Governor -- apparently has taken on additional duties:
Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who is helping to head up retention efforts for the National Republican Congressional Committee this cycle, predicted that McCotter would make moves soon to shore up his campaign operation and that the four-term Republican was well-aware he has a bull's-eye on his back.
"He's engaging like he's going to have a tough race in 2010," Rogers said. "He is going to be ready to go."
Interestingly, not a word from Mark Brewer -- and a backhanded swipe at the DCCC
But picking off McCotter could prove more difficult than Democrats are willing to admit. The party has had a long history of failing to find serious candidates to run against McCotter. And, after fielding radio talk show host Tony Trupiano in 2006 and lawyer Joseph Larkin in 2008, the DCCC is staying tight-lipped on its recruiting of potential challengers.
U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Brighton, said Bush has received a bum rap from many citizens.
"He didn't get credit for being a nice guy a lot, but his tendencies are always to do that, I think," Rogers said. "He didn't get a chance to display it."
Well! I feel so much better about the past eight years, don't you? Who knew that being a nice guy magically canceled out defiling the United States Constitution, racking up a trillion-dollar deficit and starting a few wars?
Consider this Palinesque display of syntax and logic as a preview of what to expect if Mr. Rogers should become Michigan's next governor...
I'm no big advocate of front-loading election cycles, but, as citizens of a state that is in dire straits, Michiganians have to start planning for 2010 today. With the Governorship, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Senate, and State House all up for grabs, the very future of our state hangs in the balance.
Michigan's economic woes are only part of our problems. Dragged down by the national recession, we are nearing year 9 of our own recession with 10% unemployment, and grim prospects for jobless figures next year too. Our state is heavily reliant on others for producing our energy, and our roads are in shambles with no clear way to fix them. In fact, to list the challenges that our new administration needs to surmount would take pages.
We can ill afford to stumble blindly into this election and be swayed by campaign politics on either side. Michigan needs to put the candidates to the test and challenge them to implement the people's solutions to our problems, rather than the political solutions.
This means forming a wishlist of what we want to see our officials do for us. This policy platform will be what we as a state want to see. How to do this, where to do this, and more are questions that are not up to me to answer. Our situation today, though, is far too dire to allow our next leaders to sneak into office by mastery of the political game alone.
It seems as if the new year is off with a bang, particularly with the news this afternoon that Lt. Governor John Cherry has filed paperwork to form a committee quite aptly named 'A Whole Lot of People Supporting John Cherry'. Filing the paperwork is the first step in declaring a bid to run for office, but isn't quite the same thing.
But if these words from last week's Port Huron Times Herald are a reflection of the statewide support Cherry already has, then 2010 could be another year for celebration and hope.
Lt. Gov. John Cherry, who would have taken her place, served in the Legislature for 20 years and understands how things get done. Given the prospect of double-digit unemployment and a massive budget shortfall, Michigan needs nothing less than competence in high places.
Cherry could be a strong contender for the Democratic nomination in 2010. Potential rivals include Mark Hackel, the popular sheriff of Macomb County; George Perles, the former Michigan State University football coach; Robert Ficano, the Wayne County executive; and Don Williamson, the mayor of Flint.
The announcement has been highly anticipated by most insiders in Lansing and around the state.
While perhaps a little less visible than Governor Granholm during the last couple months, the LG has been hard at work, saving jobs, helping to create new ones, and as he often shares with us here on MichLib, protecting our natural resources.
If you'd like to be a part of a whole lot of people supporting John Cherry, you can join the Facebook group here.
State Rep. Bill Huizenga ran three successful re-election campaigns for U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra.
Now Huizenga himself is campaigning for Congress.
The 39-year-old Zeeland Republican planned to officially announce today at an event in his hometown that he will run in 2010 for the 2nd Congressional District seat now held by Hoekstra. He also was to launch a campaign Web site.
Huizenga is chairman of the district for the Michigan Republican Party and was Hoekstra's director of public policy for six years.
-snip-
Huizenga is serving his third term in the state House and represents the 90th District through the end of this year. Term limits prohibited him from seeking a fourth term.
During his second term, he was chairman of the House Commerce Committee. In his final term, the GOP lost its majority in the House, which cost him his chairmanship.
It's obviously very soon to be officially announcing a 2010 candidacy for elected office, Huizenga said.
"Clearly, this is early, but like I said, I've had a lot of people asking me," he said.
(Now here's a name I haven't heard in the dog and pony show that's already starting to line up. I wonder what Bernstein himself thinks of this? - promoted by LiberalLucy)
I know we still have more than three years until the next nominating conventions for Secretary of State and Attorney General. That said, I recently thought about whom Democrats might be able to run for various races down the road in 2008, 2010, and on. I would like to toss out the name of someone whom I think would make an excellent AG: Richard Bernstein, member of the Wayne State University Board of Governors.
Governor Richard Bernstein works as a trial attorney, who represents victims of personal injury or disability discrimination. He also is an Adjunct Professor at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor.
Governor Bernstein graduated summa cum laude from the University of Michigan, and is a member of Phi Beta Kappa. He went on to earn a Juris Doctor degree from the Northwestern University School of Law.
He now practices law in Michigan State and Federal courts, and is a member of the Michigan Trial Lawyers Association, American Trial Lawyers Association, and American Bar Association.
Public service is an important part of Governor Bernstein's life. He created and hosts the CBS-Detroit television segment called "Making a Difference," which highlights exemplary community service programs. In addition, he is a contributing editorial columnist to the Detroit News and the Detroit Free Press.
Well you can never start talking about the next election soon enough. Governor Granholm will of course be term limited and hopefully will be planing to run for the Senate sometime down the road. We don't seem to have a very deep bench to draw candidates from. There is no heir apparent and no other state wide elected high profile Democrat to run. The republicans have 2 statewide elected officials with Mike Cox and Terri Lynn Land. There are other potential high profile Republicans too, Dick DeVos or Dick Posthumus could run again. Congressman Mike Rogers is often mentioned as a possibility. Congresswoman Candice Miller has statewide name ID from her stint as Secretary of state and Washington connections for money. Mike Bishop is getting more attention because of his status as Senate majority leader a position that John Engler held. So with such a deep bench on the Republican side who do we have in our stable.
