Clinton, Michigan, Obama and Bishop

by: Eric B.

Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 14:45:21 PM EDT

Here's the price of turning the primary over to the state Legislature ... Mike Bishop on Frank Beckmann's show taking a strong stand against the Democrats seeking public tax dollars to pay for a re-do.  On the easy, amiable atmosphere of the Frank Beckmann show, it provides Bishop an easy opportunity to make hay over the fact that the Democratic Party can't settle on one candidate, to say, "We want to help, but you're not going to charge the little guy to pay for your do-over."

Most of us understand how darkly amusing this is.  The first time around, pushed primarily by the state's Republicans, it cost the state's taxpayers at least $10 million and resulted in three different lawsuits.  But, well, that water under the bridge by this point.

Although there's the argument making the rounds that Florida and Michigan re-dos are not in her best interests, Michigan and Florida probably represent the only real hope that Clinton has to win the nomination without dragging the thing to the convention floor.  Presumably she'll win Pennsylvania, but there's nearly no reasonable calculus under which she can win the nomination outright between now and the convention.

Although polls are tight, a big Clinton victory here isn't outside the realm of possibility.  No one really had a ground game here in January.  On the other hand, enough of the state's leading Democrats backed her that much can be made up for lack of organization.  That kind of thing can change a race very quickly by mobilizing folks mighty quickly.  It can't be said enough ... organization and strategy trump headlines every time. 

Everyone figures that she isn't going to do as well in either state as she did the first time around, and that this doesn't really matter.  At this point, most of us realize that this first time around is just a chip thrown into the public relations game -- pretending that victories without consequence really have meaning so you can claim that you "won" something.

But, she doesn't need to do win by much, and if she comes out only winning by a slim margin, she's done better in real terms than if she keeps pushing the first results as though they are meaningful.  In the words of Kasper Gutman, delegates are the genuine coin of the realm ... one of them is worth 10 pounds of talk.

Instead, she need only win to show that she's got what it takes to win key swing states by a margin large enough not to push enough delegates to Obama to let him slide into the nomination without winning any of the remaining big contests to perhaps convince enough superdelegates that she's the party's best shot to win in November.

That about does it for that...

by: Eric B.

Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:57:00 AM EST

I think basically probably everyone's already seen this video:

Well, you can count me as being through with Hillary Clinton as of now.  Oh, if she somehow squeaks by with the nomination, I'll probably vote for her.  But, she'll be running without my active support.  I'll be sitting the presidential campaign on the sidelines.

I'm enough of a realist that I think you need to do more than give inspiring speeches to properly govern.  On the other hand, really about the only shot I see this country as having to get back on track is to come together and work things out (that means sacking those devoted to divisiveness in both parties); and the line between pointing out reality and mockery is clear enough that it's difficult to cross it accidentally.  Mocking the message of hope and unity is to mock hope and unity, and someone who can't respect hope and unity is not someone I can get behind with any enthusiasm.

Tim Walberg nets a five; Camp, McCain a big, fat zero

by: Eric B.

Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 11:19:16 AM EST

The League of Conservation Voters today released their national legislative scorecard, and while Michigan's delegations overall did pretty well, a few things stood out.

The first is that while Joe Knollenberg was named by the League of Conservation Voters to its 2008 Dirty Dozen list, his score isn't actually the lowest of any Michigan Congressman.  Knollenberg, who was named to the list because of his lifetime voting score of 7 percent, managed to more than double that last year, coming in at 20 percent.  What did he support that got him there:  Grasslands preservation, a repeal of oil company subsidies, clean energy, and agricultural subsidies reform.  What did he oppose?  Fighting global warming, a national renewable portfolio standard, increased fuel efficiency, and a bunch of other stuff.  Why?  Well, it could be the nearly $650,000 he's taken from polluting interests.  (The fuel efficiency bit, folks might remember, prompted him to erect a bunch of billboards about how much Arnold Scwarzenegger hates Michigan.)

But, who did worse than Knollenberg?  Oh, some familiar names like Hoekstra, McCotter, Rogers, Walberg, and Camp ... and McCain. (for this, we go below the fold...)

Campaign to watch -- Huckabee

by: Eric B.

Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 11:54:24 AM EST

We shift attention a bit this morning from the Democratic farce to the Republican ticket.  Polls are a bit scratchy on this, all over the place really, with the consensus that McCain is leading based mostly on his win in New Hampshire and the fact that he won Michigan in 2000 (with help from the mischief makers, everyone seems to forget).  Romney, favorite son, is investing all of his time and energy here, and last night I saw Michigan declared a "must win" state for both campaigns.

On the other hand, don't register shock Tuesday night if the silver medal goes to Mike Huckabee, or even the gold.  This isn't a prediction, mind you, 'cause Momma B. didn't raise any kids dippy enough to make public predictions based primarily on gut instinct and a few quick observations.

Probably what gives me this feeling most was the first Huckabee campaign ad I saw last night.  Whoever helped his campaign create it is a very astute observer of Michigan.

It was the second ad I've seen this campaign season, maybe the third.  The other one (two) were fairly forgettable, just typical campaign ads in a state suffering job losses.  Dark, ominous photos of closed factories, reminders how badly things generally stink hereabouts, and that kind of thing.  The one that stands out in memory was definitely a Romney ad.

The Huckabee ad was really, very different.  Rather than showing photos of closed factories, it talked about Huckabee's successes in building roads in his homestate of Arkansas, and also improvements to education (I think he also mentioned expanding healthcare).

In our Crosshairs: Tim Walberg

by: Eric B.

Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 11:38:54 AM EST

We continue profiling a few of Michigan's key statewide races this here 2008 election season.  Vote!  Vote!  Vote!  ... these people out of office.  --Eric B. 

Tim Walberg was a threatened Congressman his first day in office, a extremist Republican in an increasingly moderate district whose victory was made only possible thanks to out-of-state special interest money and the fact that the 7th District is honeycombed with pockets of true loonies.

Based on a platform of anti-tax, anti-government, anti-abortion rhetoric, Walberg first beat the incumbent, the widely-respected Republican Joe Schwarz, in the primary by six points, and then barely beat (by four points) organic turkey farmer Sharon Renier in the general.

Walberg's win in the primary was attributed to heavy donations by the anti-tax, anti-regulation, anti-government Club for Growth, something for which Walberg was so grateful that he said, in essence, that he was bought and paid for by the group.  William Pettit, in the Lansing City Pulse, put it a bit more bluntly.

And if you want to see what’s wrong with Congress, if you want to understand why the American health care system is in shambles, if you want to know the latest candidate for dumbest congressman in Washington, you need look no farther than Tim Walberg, partisan hack.