Poorly armed and somewhat dangerous: Tea Party candidates in the 2010 Michigan primary

by: pbratt

Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 15:21:32 PM EDT

Since early 2009, the Tea Party movement has gained an enormous amount of media attention. While claiming to be a non-partisan movement, the Tea Party is remarkably consistent with some of the core constituencies at the heart of Republican Party since the late 1960s. In particular, the themes commonly evoked by Tea Party participants (economic libertarianism, fervent individualism, and deep distrust of any governmental intervention) largely mirror the platform of Republican Representative Ron Paul's 2008 candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination. Indeed, many organizers of Paul's campaign and leaders in the Young American for Freedom (YAF) were behind many of the early Tea Party events in 2009.

The rise of the Tea Party movement represents in part a return of many conservative libertarians to the GOP. The candidacy of Barry Goldwater in 1964 did much to bring libertarians into the Republican Party, were they largely remained for following four decades. During his second term, George W. Bush was responsible for driving some libertarians out, as many became extremely disenchanted with the Republican Party's focus on social issues and increased governmental expansion. While not abandoning the Republican Party entirely, a sizable percentage of libertarians voted from Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008 for reasons similar to those voiced in blogger Markos Moulitsas's 2006 Cato Unbound article.

State House Pre-Primary Filing Statements Analysis

by: pbratt

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 08:49:47 AM EDT

As with the State Senate pre-primary filing statements, I've performed an analysis of the top fundraisers for the Michigan State House primary races. Again, for those interested in the complete set of financial data, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

The top fifteen candidates in terms of money raised are listed in the link provided below:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Five of the top 15 fundraisers are incumbents, and five of the 15 are Democrats.  Two of the top fundraisers are Mike Shirkley and Mark Ouimet, Republicans running in open swing seats (Districts 65th and 52nd) that the Democrats will be fighting to hold. It is interesting to note that of the top Democratic fundraisers, only one is from metropolitan Detroit (Rashida Tlaib District 12). If the Democrats remain in the majority (which I predict they will), I'd expect to see Scripps, Schmidt, and Tlaib in the running for leadership positions. In good news for the Democrats, Brandon Dillon, who is running for the 75th State House seat vacated by Robert Dean, raised a significant amount of money that leaves him with a comfortable cash on hand advantage for the general election.

The top 15 spenders are listed next (the second tab of the spreadsheet):
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Once again, Republicans dominate this list, with self financers like Holly Hughes (District 91-Swing) and Jeff Oesterle (District 67-Safe DEM) repaying a large portion of their loans and thus leading the list. As with the State Senate list, many candidates with heavy spending are in competitive primaries.

Incumbents and candidates personally financing their campaigns dominate the list of candidates with the most cash on hand listed on the third tab of the spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

11 of the 15 candidates with the greatest cash on hand advantage are incumbents, and nine of these are Democratic incumbents, three of whom are in swing Districts (Dian Slavens District 21, Sarah Roberts District 24, and Lisa Brown District 39). This financial edge is a heartening sign for continued Democratic control of the House.

Finally, Republicans hold all of the top 15 spots on the fourth spreadsheet listing candidates with the greatest amount of personal debt.  
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

While money can't buy victory, it sure can help in competitive seats like Districts 21, 52, and 91. As in some State Senate primaries, the candidates are literally locked in a spending arms race in the final weeks until August 3.  

Meet the 2010 State House and Senate Michigan Tea Party Candidates

by: pbratt

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 11:54:43 AM EDT

State Senate
District 7: Shelley Niles
District 12: John Young
District 13: Thomas Murdock
District 15: Heather Sartorius
District 26: Andrew Nicholls
District 36: Frantt Whitehall

State House
District 1: Jameson Canto
District 26: Susan Quashat
District 43: Matthew Quinn
District 51: William Guethner
District 64: Sara Summerfelt
District 65: Christopher Dickinson
District 107: Tony Matthews
District 108: David Polzin

Stay tuned for more candidates

Where Do the Dollars Go? The 2010 Edition

by: pbratt

Wed Oct 28, 2009 at 21:52:22 PM EDT

In the 2008 cycle the Michigan Democratic Party emerged victorious for the second straight election, picking up nine seats to bring their seat total to 67 and helping President Barack Obama win the state in a landslide. However the 2010 cycle appears to be challenging for the party; defend its hold on the executive branch and the lower legislative chamber, while picking up the upper chamber, a victory that has eluded the party since 1984.

To better determine which seats in both the House and Senate will likely be targeted by each party, I've replicated research I did in the last election cycle on the funding that the MDP and the MRP gives to various candidates in the State House. I used Michigan Campaign Finance Network reports for 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008 to see on what races each party put their money. Before analyzing the data I suspected that both parties would protect incumbents first, and then spend money on flipping open seats. I suspected that independent expenditures (from both parties) would also follow this logic. Finally, candidates that raised little money on their own would not receive any financial support from the state parties. I listed any race where there was an investment of over $15,000 from either party, and whether the seat was open or whether a party's incumbent was defending the seat.  

My Op-Ed and More on the Dillon Plan

by: John Freeman

Mon Jul 27, 2009 at 14:31:43 PM EDT

Cross-posted at JohnFreeman.org

This morning, my op-ed on Andy Dillon’s health care proposal appeared in the LSJ. I’ve pasted it below. But I would like to add a few things.

There’s a reason that you see some Republicans, like Mike Cox and Mike Bishop, supporting Dillon’s plan. The plan is a retread of a proposal by Michigan Senate Republicans in 2005. The Free Press points out that Senate Democrats were vocally opposed to it. They were right to do so. The plan was bad for Michigan then, and it’s bad for Michigan now.

MichLib's Eric B. is point-on when he says this plan is “building a future based on making things worse for people.” A future constructed by winning a race to the bottom is no future at all. This is true not only of benefits for teachers, but for the economy in general. There are some who say that in order to compete for business, we’ve got to slash benefits, cut back on environmental protections, reduce wages, and scale back regulations. That’s an outdated way of thinking.

The number one thing businesses look for is a high quality-of-life -- that means world-class schools with great teachers, a 21st century infrastructure, pristine natural resources, and affordable high-quality healthcare. If we really want to transform Michigan, making sure we have a high quality of life is the way to do it. The Dillon plan will do nothing to make it happen.

Here’s my editorial from the LSJ:
 

MI House: LiveBlogging the Countdown to Shutdown

by: JPowers155

Thu Sep 27, 2007 at 19:07:12 PM EDT

1:01 a.m. Roll call done. Agema, Ward, Cushingberry and Farrah are excused. The house will stand at ease till 1pm as well. 

12:08 a.m. House is back, seems to be a slow version of roll call.  

11:55 p.m. Doing notices. They'll adjourn soon and come back at 12:01am. Sounds like they're going to discharge a whole bunch of bills. Reforms/cuts? HB 5194 (the infamous income tax bill) conference committee is meeting tomorrow/today AM, not sure what that means in regards to a deal or no deal. Was that 9AM?

11:37 p.m.  Lots of milling around.  Nothing visible happening.  The noise level is picking up.  Also, the Fashion Police have noted that after this budet crisis is over, it would behoove some of the male members of the House to find a tailor.  Stat. 

11:10 p.m.  It's 10 minutes past time to get back to work.  There's some scurrying around and some keen observers have seen key Dem players back on the floor.  Alas, it's hard to see from the cheap seats at home. 

9:29 p.m.  Housekeeping over.  We're back at ease.  Again. (Til 11pm, just like the Senate) Legislators and staff?  Commence with the laughing and the joking and while you're at it?  Do your jobs and get us a budget.

9:26 p.m.  And we're baaaaaaaaaaaaaack! 

8:00 p.m.  At ease until 9:30 p.m. 

7:42 p.m.  Still at ease.  The room seems to have emptied out a bit.  Maybe a late dinner break?  I think I see a couple of weary reporters trying to snooze under the voting boards. 

7:14 p.m.  Still at ease.  Lots of laughter.  Every TV station in the state (it seems) has been given permission to film in the House. 

The House is at ease at the call of the Chair.  Via House TV, I see lots of pedi-conferencing (tm "The West Wing") and hear the semi-regular burst of laughter.  When there's more, I'll update.