Rasmussen: McCain neck-and-neck with Dems in Michigan

by: Eric B.

Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:40:09 AM EDT

According to the latest polls in Michigan, John McCain with a 1.5 point lead over Hillary Clinton, and a .4 lead over Barack Obama in the state of Michigan.  According to the same pollster (Rasmussen), McCain also has higher favorables in the state, while George Bush's popularity is not quite so high as any of the three.

McCain's lead is statistically insignificant, and represents polling from a period of continued questions about the results of the Democratic primary.  Rasmussen says that, in the end, Democrats are still 78 percent likely to take the state. 

Bonior to endorse Obama

by: Eric B.

Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:53:57 AM EDT

(hat tip ... Daily Kos)

ABC News:

ABC News has learned that David Bonior, the campaign manager for the 2008 presidential race of Sen. John Edwards, D-NC, will endorse Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, today.

Draw your own conclusions about what this might mean for Obama and organized labor.

Michigan Dems to discuss delegation

by: Eric B.

Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:44:55 PM EDT

From the Washington Times:

Michigan Democratic Party leaders will meet today to consider a compromise on seating the state's disqualified delegates at the national convention.

The proposal, offered by four prominent Michigan Democrats, would give Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton a 10-delegate edge, 69-59, for her victory in a race that did not include rival Sen. Barack Obama on the ballot.

Last night's results, frankly, render the outcome of negotiations largely moot.  The math for Clinton is worse today than it was yesterday, and a 10-delegate edge coming from Michigan doesn't make much difference.  My hunch (today, which admittedly could be a different hunch that I have tomorrow) is that the race will start drawing to a close without a negotiated settlement for either Michigan or Florida, and that our delegation will be seated by the Democratic nominee, Barack Obama.

By the way, for those watching super delegates, it'll be interesting to see what Mark Brewer does if my hunch proves incorrect.

The friends you keep...

by: Eric B.

Tue May 06, 2008 at 16:56:15 PM EDT

John McCain's Michigan campaign listens to a racist blogger and insults Michigan's Arab American community.  But, who will he surround himself with?

We'll find out tonight, when McCain pops in for a fund raiser with Mitt Romney down Detroit way.  But, we have some clues.  They include people who helped finance this ad (below the fold, due to size):

McCain listens to crazed anti-Muslim blogger, insults Arab Americans

by: Eric B.

Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:12:46 AM EDT

When we last left the Costco Coulter from Canton, she was applauding her successful lobbying of the McCain campaign to sever its ties to a prominent Arab American with ties to Hezbollah.  Today ... for every action there is a reaction.

DEARBORN — The McCain presidential campaign made a major strategic error this week insulting the Arab American community when it cut a community leader and politically active Arab American Republican from its Michigan finance committee. The decision to remove Mr. Ali Jawad from the campaign effort came after protestations from a discredited blogger known for her hate language and ignorant rants against Arab Americans, American Muslims, the religion of Islam and American officals and public figures with whom she disagrees.

All of it undeniabily true, especially the part about the Costco Coulter's regular tirades against Muslims, which is why my original post included a standard accuracy disclaimer.

The bigger point, however, is how often the McCain will insult the Arab American community over the next six months.  Siding with the Costco Coulter over someone who's given them a lot of money in the past may serve as a useful predictor in this case.  In a state expected to be close, like Michigan, and with a significant Arab American population, like Michigan, it could be an important development.

Clinton to use Michigan as tool of brinksmanship?

by: Eric B.

Mon May 05, 2008 at 13:56:00 PM EDT

Okay, fine, the Clinton Camp has forced me [sic] hand:

Hillary Clinton's campaign today acknowledged plans to try to win seating of the disputed Michigan and Florida delegations to the Democratic Nation Convention at a meeting of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31.

They're calling it the "nuclear option."  I'm asking, "is this the kind of person whose finger you want on the button?"  Their statement:

"There is no secret plan.... The Clinton campaign has been vocal in stating that the votes of 2.5 million people must be respected. Hardly a day goes by when a Clinton official doesn't publicly declare that the votes of Michigan and Florida count and that the delegations from those states should be seated."

Except that the primary, according to a federal judge, didn't take place.  What the Clinton camp isn't acknowledging is that last year's law that gave us this mess included language that tied the whole thing up in a nice, neat little package ("Enacting section 1. If any portion of this amendatory act or the application of this amendatory act to any person or circumstances is found invalid by a court, it is the intent of the legislature that the provisions of this amendatory act are nonseverable and that the remainder of the amendatory act shall be invalid, inoperable, and without effect.").  When the federal judge threw out the provision on the voter lists, that meant she threw the entire law out.  Hence, no election with any legal standing took place, and Hillary Clinton didn't win squat.  This isn't my opinion.  This is what the law says.

Rasmussen poll: Bush approval ratings hit new low

by: Eric B.

Sat May 03, 2008 at 14:51:58 PM EDT

Meet President "34 percent."  That is, only 14 percent of the nation strongly approves of the job performance by President Breaks Everything He Touches.  What does it mean?

That’s the lowest full-month approval rating ever for the President measured by Rasmussen Reports.

Oh, no kidding.  I say that if the Democrats can get their stuff together that they should win the presidency in a walk.

The importance of appointees

by: Eric B.

Sat May 03, 2008 at 13:05:59 PM EDT

The ouster of Mary Gade as Region V administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency reminds us of what should be a critical presidential campaign issue, but which never gets a second's worth of attention -- who a prospective candidate is likely to appoint to key posts.

Here is what EPA administrator Stephen Johnson said about Gade when she was first appointed to the job a year and a half ago. 

“We are excited to welcome Mary Gade back to EPA Region 5 where she began her impressive environmental career,” said Administrator Stephen L. Johnson in announcing her appointment today. “With over twenty years of experience in environmental regulation and enforcement, Mary is well-prepared to lead the Agency’s largest regional office.”

Things don't always work out, but that doesn't appear to be the case here.

"Primary" Thoughts

by: philgoblue

Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 11:00:43 AM EST

Clinton: 55% -- 328,151 votes
Uncommitted: 40% -- 236,723 votes
Kucinich: 4% -- 21, 708
Dodd: 1% -- 3,853 votes
Gravel: 0% -- 2,363 votes

Overall, I'm just amazed that 40% of those that voted, took the time to go out and vote for "nobody" given there was no campaign to speak of, just some small grassroots work on LTEs and email lists. Especially given that Team Hillary Michigan sent out glossy mailers and held rallies for Hillary. I also credit the media which around here and I know in Lansing, got the word out that Edwards and Obama supporters were advocating Uncommitted.

Let's Be Serious In Michigan: Vote Uncommitted, Not Mitt

by: philgoblue

Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 10:51:02 AM EST

This is a horrible idea dreamed up by a Californian. Democrats should vote in the Democratic Primary where something is at stake -- the media reports after the "primary." They can either read "Hillary On a Roll, Wins Michigan" or "Uncommitted Defeats Hillary, Clinton Can't Win Against Nobody." Supporters of John Edwards and Barack Obama along with those angry at Granholm (trying to get a job in a possible, if now less likely, Hillary Administration) for strong-arming this through the MDP should VOTE UNCOMMITTED.

The main problem with Kos' scheme is that we Michigan Democrats need to worry about picking our own nominee, rather than attempt to have some small impact on their nominee. It's more imperative that we Michigan Democrats do our little part so that we do not end up with Hillary, our weakest candidate and least progressive potential president.

Every vote for Romney is also a vote for the headline "Hillary Wins Michigan, Controls Race."

So, think before you follow a bunch of out-of-staters trying to get you to vote for a Republican and instead

Huckabee Camp Pushes Democrats in Robo-Call

by: philgoblue

Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 18:59:23 PM EST

Here's roughly on the robocall from Common Sense Issues (my answers in parentheses):

UNITE-HERE Midwest (including Michigan) Endorses John Edwards

by: philgoblue

Thu Dec 06, 2007 at 09:49:15 AM EST

Noel Beasley, manager of the Chicago and Midwest Regional Joint Board, said of her membership:

Our members are emphatic in their support for Senator Edwards, and anxious to get involved.

David Bonior Goes After Hillary on Trade

by: philgoblue

Wed Jul 25, 2007 at 17:35:26 PM EDT

With all due respect ... they had a very important choice to make back in '93: whether to do the North American Free Trade agreement or health care. They implemented the North American Free Trade Agreement that put literally millions of workers out of work in this country and destroyed, basically, our good trading relationships we had around the world. And then in the interim, they lost any capital they had to get health care passed. ... The fact of the matter is it's been an absolute disaster on health care.

Report from the Edwards Event in Detroit

by: philgoblue

Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 12:35:56 PM EDT

Well, it's two weeks late (hardly BREAKING anymore), but here's my full write-up of the Edwards fundraising event I attended on 14 June.

Lunch with John Edwards: 14 June Detroit Fundraiser

by: philgoblue

Thu May 31, 2007 at 15:10:26 PM EDT

Florida moves up primary

by: memiller

Thu May 03, 2007 at 15:41:21 PM EDT

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) -- Florida took a step toward shaking up the presidential primary on Thursday, giving final legislative approval to moving the state's 2008 primary to Jan. 29 and bypassing a dozen other states set for Feb. 5.

Moving up Florida's primary, which is currently in early March, would put the state's contest behind only the Iowa and Nevada Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary -- and on the same day as South Carolina's Democratic primary.

...

National Republican and Democratic leaders have said they will take away delegates to the nominating conventions if Florida moved its primary earlier than Feb. 5. The Democratic National Committee has said a candidate who campaigns in Florida for a primary earlier than Feb. 5 will be ineligible for receiving any of the state's delegates.

David Bonior -- "John Edwards's Left-Hand Man"

by: philgoblue

Sun Mar 18, 2007 at 23:21:31 PM EDT

Bonior, Edwards, Michigan and the Unions

by: philgoblue

Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 23:37:37 PM EST

Below are some excerpts, summaries and my commentary: