2010 Recap Part III: A Polarized Electorate

by: pbratt

Tue Apr 05, 2011 at 11:28:26 AM EDT

While Michigan was among the last states to have its 2010 Census data released, the wait was well worth it. The story that the media covered was Detroit's 26% population loss since the 2000 Census. As I mentioned in an earlier post, in 1950 Detroit was home to 29% of the state's population, a figure that has since dropped to 7% by the 2010 Census. The story of Michigan since then end of the era of "Grand Expectations" between 1945 and 1974 is one of painful economic restructuring from a industrial to a service-based economy, population dispersal (whether from core cities to suburbs or to other states), and growing income/economic inequity within the state.  

State of the Senate: Part IV

by: pbratt

Thu Jul 01, 2010 at 17:50:05 PM EDT

Introduction

A few months ago I examined the underlying political conditions of the 110 Michigan State House districts, which can be found here, and in addition to previous analysis of the State Senate and State House. This analysis used a variation of the reputable House Vulnerability Index developed by Crisitunity at the Swing State Project that I called the District Vulnerability Index (DVI). This analysis is the fourth part of the series, and looks at the individual State Senate races. I last looked at individual candidate filings at the end of April, and over the past two months, the field of candidates who have filed to run in the August 2010 primary have solidified for both parties. As mentioned in previous posts, I maintain a listing of State House and State Senate candidates that includes the financial filing statements and in-depth analysis that can be obtained via a subscription by emailing peterbratt@gmail.com.  

Casandra Ulbrich Announces Bid for State Senate

by: A-Hillz4ever

Sat Mar 06, 2010 at 18:51:52 PM EST

Offers “New Leadership, New Results” for Michigan’s 12th District
Respected State Board of Education Member Represents
Voice of Reason, Reform and Revitalization

Rochester Hills, MI – Casandra Ulbrich, longtime advocate for education and a member of the State Board of Education, announced her Democratic candidacy for the State Senate seat in Oakland County’s highly coveted 12th District.

“I’m running for the State Senate because Michigan is at a pivotal point, and I believe new leadership can guide our state into an era of new results and renewed prosperity,” said Ulbrich. “I can no longer watch partisan bickering flourish while our state withers on the vine.
“The State Board of Education is a partisan board, and yet works as a cohesive group for the benefit of Michigan’s students. I’ll bring that same philosophy to the State Senate. We can restore the voice of all Michigan citizens if we elect public servants who are less concerned about their own political future, and more concerned about the collective future of our state.”

Ulbrich’s campaign platform underscores three critical issues facing the state:

• Revitalizing Michigan’s economy and restoring jobs and prosperity
• Reshaping education and responding to the needs of a 21st century workforce
• Rethinking government and reforming Michigan’s tax structure

Ulbrich is receiving support from local leaders, including Oakland County Treasurer, Andy Meisner. “Casandra Ulbrich will bring legislative leadership to Lansing that will make Oakland County proud, and her experience in education will be key to Michigan moving to a knowledge-based economy,” said Meisner.

Ulbrich has served on the State Board of Education since January, 2007, where she has worked across party lines to enact tough policies to improve and enhance public education in Michigan. She also serves on the National Association of State Boards of Education Government Affairs Committee, which advises Congress on National Education policy. In addition, Ulbrich has worked in higher education for the past
nine years, currently serving as the Director of Corporate and Foundation Relations at Wayne State University. Prior to joining WSU in 2001, Ulbrich was a Press Secretary to former House Democratic Whip David Bonior. As a State Senator, Ulbrich will focus on creating jobs and strengthening public education in Michigan.
“Job creation must be our first priority,” said Ulbrich. “This includes attracting new and high paying jobs, retaining talented workers and providing opportunities for entrepreneurs and small business owners.”
The first in her family to attend college, Ulbrich earned an Associates Degree from St. Clair County Community College, a Bachelor of Arts in Political Sciences from the University of Michigan (Ann Arbor), and a Masters Degree in Communication from Wayne State University. She is currently completing a PhD in Communication, also from Wayne State University.

“I know first hand the benefits of education,” said Ulbrich. “A quality education is the foundation of a lifetime of success, it’s an investment that has guaranteed returns. The state needs to invest in early childhood education, and ensure that higher education is affordable and accessible.”
Casandra Ulbrich and her husband, David Williams, live in Rochester Hills.

The 12th District includes Addison Twp., Auburn Hills, Independence Twp., Keego Harbor, Lake Angelus, Oakland Twp., Orion Twp., Oxford Twp., Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Sylvan Lake, and Clarkston.

Rundown of the Michigan State Senate Campaign Filing Statements

by: pbratt

Sun Feb 07, 2010 at 22:49:25 PM EST

Following my earlier analysis of the 2009 Compliance Statements from the Michigan State House, the State Senate is also worth examining. It is important to remember how wide open the Senate is for turnover in 2010,  as there are 30 of 38 State Senate seats open. In the past decade, only one state senate incumbent has lost to a challenger (Laura Toy to Glenn Anderson in 2006), underscoring how much easier open seats are to capture.

http://i303.photobucket.com/al...
Figure 1: State Senate Partisan Status

Figure 1 is a chart displaying the expected competitiveness for Michigan State Senate races. Using the underlying baseline vote from the Michigan Board of Education races over the past four elections (2002-2008), I have also noted the number of times each party has challenged a seat. For example, in Senate District 34, the Democrats have invested party resources in the seat one time, while the GOP has invested in it twice. It quickly becomes apparent that rarely spends money defending or challenging seats in their Safe or Strong category or that of the opposing party.

State Senate and State House Candidate Filings and News Roundup: January Edition

by: pbratt

Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 18:00:47 PM EST

State Senate

District 7 (Status: Swing)
This district has seen four candidates emerge, and one depart. Democratic State Representative Marc Corriveau (1/13/2010) and former Democratic Representative Kathleen Law (1/16/2010) have both filed to seek the Democratic nomination.

With Corriveau's entrance into the race former Republican Representative John Stewart (who is running as a Democrat) has departed from the  race.  Corriveau is an extremely effective legislator who has a reputation for winning tough elections, winning election in 2006 in seat that was thought to be a safe Republican district, although Law might prove to be stiff competition in the a Democratic primary.

Facing either Corriveau or Law will be Republicans Colleen McDonald (1/7/2010) or Abe Munfakh (12/28/2010). Munfakh currently serves as a Trustee on Plymouth Township Board, while judging from Colleen McDonald's twitter feed, she had worked for an auto dealership for 26 years before it was forced to close.

District 10 (Status: Leans Democratic)
This Macomb County district covering Sterling Heights, Utica, Clinton Township, and Roseville has attracted its second candidate to replace term-limited Democratic Senator Michael Switalski (who is seemingly challenging US Representative Sander Levin in the 10th District). As noted by the Macomb Daily News, former Macomb County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga (1/4/2010), has filed for the Democratic primary and immediately became the Democratic front-runner for the seat.

Marlinga will face Macomb County Commissioner Paul Gieleghem, in the Democratic primary. No Republican has yet filed for this seat.  

A Festivus Miracle: State Senate and State House Candidate Filings and News Roundup

by: pbratt

Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 23:43:00 PM EST

Thanks to a large number of news stories and candidates filing to run as your elected officials in 2010, here is an update bought to you by Festivus.

State Senate:

District 10 (Status: Leans Democratic)
This Macomb County district covering Sterling Heights, Utica, Clinton Township, and Roseville has attracted a candidate to replace term-limited Democratic Senator Michael Switalski (who is seemingly challenging US Representative Sander Levin in the 10th District). Paul Gieleghem (12/14/2009), currently is chairman of the Macomb County Board of Commissioners and represents District 19 (covering Central Township), has filed for the Democratic primary. Gieleghem, who served in the Michigan House from 1999 to 2005, might see some competition in the Democratic primary, including Representative Fred Miller and former Representative Frank Accavitti. No Republicans have yet filled for this seat, although Representative Tory Rocca and former Representative Sal Rocca might consider this race. Representative Kim Metlzer, another potential Republican candidate, chose to move from this district into the friendlier Republican territory of the 11th District (which shows you how strongly the GOP thinks they can win this seat).